| What are the obstacles that hamper successful | | | | One of the tools that are used in organizations to |
| decision-making?What are the downsides of group | | | | broaden the scope of thinking and decision-making is |
| decision-making?How does our management style | | | | Edward De Bono's method of Six Thinking Hats. We |
| affect the process of decision-making?And why is | | | | used it in numerous organizational settings and training |
| rational thinking overrated?The following article | | | | sessions as a tool for an effective and thorough |
| discusses tools for the management of | | | | discussion of complex issues. It helps map different |
| decision-making processes under changing conditions. | | | | aspects of the subject towards making a decision. |
| | | | |
| Decision-Making with Style | | | | The principle of this method is to direct the thinking |
| Try to recall an important decision which you were a | | | | and the debate of all group members to six different |
| part of in the past 6 months. Think of the most | | | | thinking directions. Thus, the entire group moves |
| significant choice you had to make in your organization. | | | | forward in the same direction, instead of clashing and |
| How was this decision taken? Did the senior manger | | | | arguing on the correct way to address the issue |
| make the call after consulting with several assistants? | | | | altogether. For instance, early in the discussion |
| Was it a majority rule? Was it a consensus decision? | | | | participants should put on their "Red Hat" - encouraging |
| Were objective facts and information the driving force | | | | people to express feelings, hunches and intuitions - |
| behind it, or intuitions and feelings? How long did it take | | | | without the need for logical explanations. This minimizes |
| to make the final decision? | | | | hidden influence of negative or positive feelings later in |
| | | | the discussion. Wearing the "White Hat" (focusing on |
| Some of us tend to make our major decisions on our | | | | facts, information and missing data) soon afterwards |
| own, while others prefer to do it after hearing the | | | | prevents the dangers of ignoring crucial facts and |
| opinions and exploring the options with others. We also | | | | ensures that a decision can be made based on |
| differ in the time we take to make a decision, and in | | | | available information. The use of other thinking hats |
| our need to base it on factual analysis or on intuition. In | | | | may provide an answer to other typical |
| other words, each of us has a characteristic personal | | | | decision-making errors - such as wearing the Black |
| decision-making style. | | | | Hat to investigate potential problems when the entire |
| | | | group is enthusiastic about moving forward with a |
| The managerial decision-making style may be | | | | certain decision. |
| mapped using three axes: | | | | |
| | | | Overcoming group pressure |
| Decision-making speed: on the one end you have the | | | | |
| impulsive decision-makers, who do no stop to consider | | | | Another well-known hazard characteristic of group |
| the results of their choices, while on the other extreme | | | | decision-making is the Groupthink effect, discussed by |
| you'll find those who postpone and avoid making any | | | | Janis & Mann (1977). The Abilene Paradox also |
| decision in fear of taking responsibility for it.Collection of | | | | describes how group decisions can actually be |
| information: to what extent does the manager base | | | | opposite to the views of its members. This |
| their decisions on an analysis of data as opposed to | | | | phenomena was observed by Jerry B. Harvey and it |
| intuition and an internal compass.Sharing: the extent | | | | denotes a process that leads a group to make an |
| and manner by which managers involve and include | | | | irrational decision, mostly because each member tries |
| others in the collection of information and in the making | | | | to adjust his/her opinion to what they consider to be |
| of the decision itself. | | | | the view of other group members. |
| Usually, when we think of the first axis - | | | | |
| decision-making speed - the common view about | | | | Numerous studies have shown that this type of failure |
| postponing a decision is negative ("How long must we | | | | has lead to crucial decisions - such as the US |
| wait for his decision?"). Indeed, some situations call for | | | | misinterpretation of the Japanese maneuvers before |
| an early resolution before things get out of hand and a | | | | the attack on Pearl Harbor, the invasion to the Cuban |
| greater problem is faced. However, on other situations | | | | Bay of Pigs, the Challenger and Columbia space |
| a hasty decision may very costly. In other cases things | | | | shuttle disasters and lately - the American invasion of |
| may be resolved by themselves (one may say that it | | | | Iraq. |
| is better "to decide not to decide" then). | | | | |
| | | | Janis lists a number of symptoms that help identify |
| The second and third axes (collection of information | | | | when groupthink occurs - the illusion of unanimity, self |
| and sharing) provide a framework for describing five | | | | censorship, avoidance of criticism, pressure on |
| typical managerial decision makers: | | | | non-conformists, etc. He then points to the typical |
| | | | characteristics of decisions made under these |
| The Lone Wolf: this manager never consults with | | | | conditions - insufficient examination of alternatives, |
| anyone and decides on everything by himself.The | | | | partial understanding of the purposes of the decision, |
| Surveyor: this type of manager does not hold a | | | | ignoring of significant risks involved, lack of vital |
| discussion before the decision, but rather samples the | | | | information and no contingency plans. |
| views of people involved (in a kind of referendum), and | | | | |
| decides according to the majority view.The | | | | We offer two tools for a structured discussion in |
| Authoritarian: this manager consults and listens to | | | | order to reduce the dangers of groupthink. The first |
| others to draw ideas and directions, but makes the | | | | tool is called "Devil's Advocate" and is used to force |
| final decision by himself.Semi-Democratic: this manager | | | | the participants to examine the arguments against a |
| holds a discussion and strives for a collective decision, | | | | decision that is about to be made. Before or at the |
| yet keeps the right of veto on certain | | | | outset of the debate one of the group members is |
| decisions.Harmonic: this manager consults and reaches | | | | given the role of questioning the underlying |
| a common agreement, usually through a consensus | | | | assumptions and major arguments of the team. When |
| (e.g. where others have the right of veto as well). | | | | someone is trusted with this official role, there are |
| | | | greater chances that they will not fear to express their |
| | | | criticism, opening the way for others to raise doubts |
| Flexible decision-making - according to the situation | | | | and disagreements. |
| | | | |
| In order to improve the quality of decision-making, we | | | | Another tool for overcoming the risks of groupthink is |
| should begin by recognizing our typical decision-making | | | | based on the Delphi Technique for situational analysis |
| style and that of our co-workers. In addition, as | | | | and decision-making. The views of each group |
| managers, we must understand that different situations | | | | member are written separately and collected in |
| call for different decision-making strategies and | | | | advance (and in sensitive decision - anonymously). The |
| techniques. Therefore, we have to acquire new | | | | results are then collected and discussed in the group. |
| mechanisms for making decisions, so that we may | | | | Due to this seemingly technical procedure participants |
| choose the way we tackle a situation according to its | | | | don't know the opinions of others when they have to |
| characteristics. | | | | make their own recommendation, and a wider range |
| | | | of views is usually produced. |
| There are three central questions we need to ask | | | | |
| ourselves whenever we are about to make a | | | | We used this technique for an expert committee that |
| managerial decision: | | | | discussed and rated product innovation ideas. The |
| | | | meeting is opened with a general discussion on the |
| Is it vital to make a decision, and if so - how urgent is | | | | criteria that should be considered when rating the |
| it?What information is required in order to make a | | | | ideas. Participants then personally rate dozens of |
| calculated choice, and when is it necessary to go | | | | innovation ideas (produced beforehand) on a scale of |
| ahead even with partial information?Who need to be a | | | | 1-5. An average rating for each idea is calculated from |
| part of the decision-making process, and to what | | | | these individual judgments and the highest ranking |
| extent?Let us demonstrate the use of the above | | | | ideas are discussed. In such a way, a certain idea may |
| questions through several examples: | | | | be highly rated by most members, yet one participant |
| | | | might have noticed a major flaw in the idea, and his |
| Example A: The organization has grown and needs to | | | | reservation is revealed through the low rating given to |
| be moved to a new office building. The Operations | | | | the idea. |
| Manager is required to choose the location for the | | | | The trap of commitment (to preceding decisions) |
| new building. His decision will probably have a direct | | | | |
| influence on all departments, and it is desirable to make | | | | The last aspect of decision-making we turn our |
| them a part of the process. This will often contribute to | | | | attention to has to do with emotion and ego. |
| the quality of the decision (providing a more holistic | | | | Whenever we make a personal decision, or are |
| view of the implications of the decision), and will also | | | | involved in a group decision, we become emotionally |
| lower levels of resistance once the decision is made | | | | and psychologically committed to the choice we made. |
| (as everyone had a chance to express their concerns | | | | As time progresses and we invest more resources in |
| and suggestions and where involved early in the | | | | the execution of our chosen path, our individual and |
| process). | | | | organizational tendency to support that direction grows. |
| | | | Even if we are faced with signs that indicate that the |
| The decision does not seem to be an urgent one, as | | | | original decision was wrong, we usually find it hard to |
| well. In such a scenario the Operations Manager may | | | | admit the mistake, conquer our ego and pride, and |
| prepare initial information on available choices, costs, | | | | change it. This kind of situation may lead to a magic |
| and considerations. Later - others may be made part | | | | trap, driving people and organizations on a path of |
| of the decision buy presenting three or four acceptable | | | | deterioration and escalation of a single mistake, leading |
| options, to be decided by the majority. The Surveyor | | | | to more and more wrong choices (see Drummond, |
| style is most appropriate. | | | | 1994).An interesting way to expose managers to this |
| | | | type of danger, so that they may learn to avoid it, is by |
| Example B: One of your employees was caught | | | | letting them experience it. This may be accomplished, |
| stealing company equipment. Your decision will not | | | | for instance, through a decision-making simulation and |
| directly affect other employees (they might learn from | | | | analysis through board games. Such exercises require |
| the way you handle the case). The best tactics in this | | | | participating managers to make personal, small team |
| case would be a thorough investigation of the facts, | | | | and entire group decisions in a variety of game |
| and if in fact the employee has committed the theft, it | | | | situations. Most partakers fall into the trap of sticking to |
| should be handled without delay and in an authoritarian | | | | an initial game plan, and find it hard to exert strategic or |
| manner - discharging the employee. It is advisable to | | | | tactical flexibility. Following this demonstration through |
| consult with the HR department and the legal | | | | play, is an observation and discussion of the emotional |
| department, to make sure the dismissal adheres to all | | | | and inter-personal causes of this escalation. Finally, |
| legal procedures. | | | | work related examples of similar decision patterns |
| | | | should be discussed and tools are offered for breaking |
| Example C: You come across a significant business | | | | those patterns. |
| opportunity for your organization, but a quick response | | | | Improving the quality of personal and organizational |
| and action is needed in order to grab it. It is obvious | | | | decision |
| that others will be influenced by the decision, and must | | | | |
| therefore be a part of it. In order not to lose time you | | | | In this final section, we suggest ways to cope with the |
| may call an urgent interdisciplinary meeting, collecting | | | | dangers listed above. The suggested measures may |
| vital information from all participants before making a | | | | be implemented by the management of the |
| common and more balanced decision, taking into | | | | organization, and especially the Human Resource |
| consideration the various risks and benefits. A group | | | | Department: |
| decision will also allow other the chance to agree and | | | | |
| support the new business direction.The Age of | | | | Raising the awareness of managers and employees |
| Rationality and its dangersIf we seek to improve the | | | | to their decision-making styles through the use of |
| way we make decisions, understanding the situation | | | | personal test or surveys, observations, management |
| and adopting the appropriate decision-making style is | | | | consulting or workshops.A systematic placement of |
| hardly enough. The crossroads in which we choose | | | | different types of decision-makers in key positions and |
| the directions to our future carry with them quite a | | | | in task forces.Encouraging the use of decision-making |
| few traps and obstacles that may fail us. Following is a | | | | tools such as Delphi, consensual decision-making, |
| discussion of some well-known pitfalls of | | | | Devil's Advocate and the Six Thinking Hats.The |
| decision-making processes, along with relevant tools | | | | analysis of cases of good and bad decisions in the |
| and measures to face those dangers. | | | | organization itself - aiming towards learning rather then |
| | | | blaming.Personally, each one of us may learn to |
| The modern age has seen the rise of rational thinking | | | | improve our decision by observing the ways other |
| to a position of supremacy. This has gone so far as to | | | | people make decisions, asking feedback on the way |
| lead to the illusion that human can and should try to be | | | | we make decisions, and intentionally trying out |
| perfect decision-makers. The unequivocal belief in the | | | | decision-making styles which are different from our |
| rationality of man is based on the modern view of | | | | typical style. All of this should eventually contribute for |
| man, on western philosophy and on the rise and | | | | improving the way we make decisions and the quality |
| achievements of science in the past two centuries. | | | | of the decisions we make. In the long term - this is |
| However, there is still a lot of evidence of the limits of | | | | what every organization and person must do in order |
| human rationality. We know of the limited ability to | | | | to advance in today's challenging world. |
| collect and process decision-related information, the | | | | |
| subjective interpretation of facts, and the effects of | | | | ReferencesHarvey, Jerry B. (1988). The Abilene |
| personality and culture on decisions. | | | | Paradox and Other Meditations on Management. |
| | | | Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books.Janis, I. & Mann, L. |
| Consider, for instance, a meeting in which the | | | | (1977). Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of |
| participants have to make a certain decision. In most | | | | Conflict, Choice and Commitment. New York: The Free |
| cases, they would voice arguments supporting | | | | Press.Drummond, H. (1994), "Escalation in Organizational |
| different views, using logical explanations to support | | | | Decision Making: A Case of Recruiting an Incompetent |
| their point of view. The underlying meaning of making a | | | | Employee", Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7, |
| decision in such a setting is that one explanation is | | | | 43-55.Amir Elion is a management and innovation |
| logically correct while other arguments are logically | | | | consultant and facilitator. He was a part of a group |
| false. This process fails to face the truth of limited | | | | that developed a unique method for training diverse |
| information that participants have. It completely ignores | | | | skills through the use of board games. He has a |
| the emotions and egos affecting the course of | | | | degree in Philosophy and General studies and an MA |
| discussion. | | | | in organizational behavior. |
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